The Ethiopian ruling party’s Amhara Prosperity Party (PP) branch condemned the calls by the Tigrayan Peoples Liberation Front (TPLF) for more war. 

After the Ethiopian army withdrew from Mekelle, TPLF fighters have reportedly took over the Tigray city. Emboldened by their advance, TPLF spokesman Getachew Reda said his forces will “march to Addis Ababa.” 

The development comes after TPLF defeated ENDF forces in several towns in central Tigray during the national election. According to army spokesman Col Getenet Adane, the TPLF was able to advance due to the ENDF previously reducing its forces in Tigray and relocating them through out the country for election security. The remaining small ENDF force were therefore exposed and unable to fight back rebel forces, he claimed.

A military source told Awasa Guardian (AG) that various factors shaped the government’s unexpected decision of Mekelle withdrawal and ceasefire. “In addition to reducing the humanitarian crisis in Tigray for the farming season, Ethiopia also wants to concentrate its military on defending potential Sudanese and Egyptian attacks on its hydro dam  area.” Other key factors included lack of foreign currency, diplomatic maneuvering and post-election domestic realities, since more hardline Amhara opposition parties won many parliament seats, which would “harm Tigray-PP’s abilities to gain political support from Tigray people,” the source added. The National Movement of Amhara (NaMa) opposition party is believed to have gained majority parliament seats in Gojjam and North Shewa, and several seats in parts of Wollo and Gondar.

On Monday, various pro-TPLF activists rejected the calls for ceasefire and demanded the violence to continue to liberate “all of Tigray.”

These areas refer to what critics call “Greater Tigray,” with territories that include Welkait, Humera, Tegede and Raya, among others. The TPLF’s original marxist 1976 manifesto also puts most of central Eritrea inside “Greater Tigray.” 

On Tuesday, TPLF leader Getachew added that his forces will also “march to Asmara,” the Eritrean capital, claiming that “nothing is off the table.” 

The November 2020 war began in a similar fashion, with bravado and threats from TPLF leaders, who ambushed the federal government’s northern base to trigger the conflict.

Accordingly, many experts believe the ceasefire is unlikely to last up-to the end of September and renewed war could be more devastating than the initial conflict.

The Amhara PP said the TPLF should abide by the “ceasefire” declared by the Ethiopian government. However, if TPLF violates the ceasefire, the Amhara PP suggested its military will “resist” and defend its positions in Welkait and other territories. 

There are several credible reports that TPLF has already violated the two-day long federal ceasefire and its forces are advancing in southeastern Tigray. In addition to non-Tigrayan minorities, the TPLF is reportedly purging pro-government Tigrayan dissidents and activists who oppose the supremacy of the Adwa-clan of the Tigrayan people, which dominated the TPLF for decades. Due to TPLF’s past documented record of misusing, selling and diverting humanitarian aid to build-up its military, most local observers believe the Ethiopian government should not trust the TPLF to deliver aid to thousands of hungry Tigrayans impacted by the conflict.

At the beginning of the November conflict, the TPLF massacred over 1,200 Welkait-Amhara civilians in the town of Maikadra.