Exclusive AG interview with Former US Ambassador Nagy
Awasa Guardian (AG), the premier English language independent media of southern Ethiopian nations, spoke with the former ambassador and US Assistant Secretary of State for Africa Tibor P. Nagy on recent developments in Ethiopia and the region.
Awasa Guardian: You recently said “Egypt, a country which does not contribute one drop of water to the Nile cannot demand 100% of the right to decide how the waters should be used.” Your views remain one of the most informed and progressive regarding Ethiopia’s GERD and equitable utilization of the Nile. But why does Biden’s administration still demand Ethiopia give another country control on the filling & operation of its own hydro-dam?
ASSISTANT SECRETARY NAGY: I can’t speak for the US administration since my position as Assistant Secretary of State ended in January 2021. From my perspective, I don’t believe the Biden administration holds the position you describe. The bottom line for the US is the hope that the three parties will arrive at a mutual-agreement which meets their objectives and enter a cooperative, rather than adversarial, relationship on the GERD. Unfortunately, during the last administration, because of President Trump’s strong personal leanings, the US did put its thumb on the scale in favor of Egypt – and in the US it’s the President who directs foreign policy not those underneath.
AG: After making several threats over the years, Egypt did joint military drills with Sudan. Since the Tigray conflict began, Sudan escalated clashes in Western Ethiopia and their military drills at the Ethiopian border included joint Egypt-Sudan air exercise near the GERD. Do you fear an outbreak of regional war?
ASSISTANT SECRETARY NAGY: No. Military exercises can be a method of reinforcing a nation’s foreign policy (also called “saber rattling”) but they don’t mean war is imminent. I don’t think anyone believes there could be a military solution to the GERD. Let’s recall the last time Egypt went to war with Ethiopia (1874-1876 I believe) it was soundly defeated and weakened.
AG: Ethiopians realize Egypt is a more valuable US ally and it is rewarded billions worth US military aid every year due to Cairo’s importance for America’s Middle East foreign policy. But in hindsight, do you think this decades old American military aid has created a regional imbalance of power in favor of Cairo, that could likely enable Egypt to attack Ethiopia?
ASSISTANT SECRETARY NAGY: The importance of a nation’s relationships is not static and changes just as relationships between people do. Egypt plays a vital role in Middle East stability and by its relationship with Israel. At the same time Ethiopia plays a vital role for its status in the Horn of Africa, it place as the second most populous African nation, and its fast growing economy and emergence as a middle-income country. In my lectures on Africa I often state that Ethiopia is the only Sub Saharan country which is a product of history and geography and not Europeans drawing lines on a map of Africa. So yes, the Egypt relationship is important – but that doesn’t mean the Ethiopian one is not. It’s not a zero sum game.
AG: Critics puzzled by the breakdown in US-Ethiopia relations say, it’s not just America’s geo-strategic policy to protect Egypt’s interests, instead Abiy’s closeness to the Eritrean government of Isaias Afeworki is to blame since the US State Department establishment invested decades trying to isolate Eritrea. Do you agree?
ASSISTANT SECRETARY NAGY: No. Ethiopia’s relationship with Eritrea is not a factor in US – Ethiopian relations. When I was Assistant Secretary I publicly said many time that it was in the US interest to have the type of positive relationship with Eritrea that we had then with Ethiopia. Unfortunately the Eritreans never responded with any positive measures. I have to say that personally I bear a grudge towards the Isaias regime – not Eritrea or Eritreans – for conducting a premeditated, unprovoked attack against Ethiopia in 1998 when I was Ambassador to Ethiopia and personally saw the resulting death and destruction on innocent Ethiopians. But as a professional diplomat I had to overcome that in our attempts to warm relations. Someday we’ll get there.
AG: You criticized President Biden’s statement mentioning only the suffering in Tigray, which ignores atrocities and millions displaced in Amhara & Afar regions. You said “wording matters.” What exactly did you mean by “matters” and do you believe such Western selective “wording” legitimizes the Tigrayan victimhood narrative which is giving license for TPLF rebels to continue the war?
ASSISTANT SECRETARY NAGY: Wording matters because several parts of Northern Ethiopia, besides Tigray, have suffered death, destruction, suffering, rapes, and other depredations. One of the consequences of the conflict has been that each side tends to only see its own suffering, discounts that of others, and tries to portray its own as being the heaviest on the scales of injustice. The poor victims who are killed or raped – immaterial of who they are or where they are – can’t worry about the total count as they are dead or brutalized immaterial of what happens elsewhere. It would have been wiser for President Biden to use a term which included all those who have suffered horribly in this conflict.
AG: As of Thursday afternoon, Xinhua, a Chinese media, was the only major foreign news agency that reported the breaking story of “massive fuel theft” by TPLF in Tigray, which WFP confirmed. In contrast, every western media outlet swiftly reported Ex-TPLF leader Dr Tedros Adhanom’s controversial claim that no aid was getting into Tigray. Do you think Western media coverage of this conflict has been balanced?
ASSISTANT SECRETARY NAGY: No media coverage is ever truly “balanced” – whether due to voluntary or involuntary bias. Media outlets rely on various sources of information, so the best way to get the most accurate reporting possible is to tell the media more, rather than less. This means inviting the media and opinion makers to see everything, everywhere. Many members of the media are quite courageous and willing to cover conflict zones and go to some of the harshest, most dangerous places on earth. To get as balanced a story as possible, make sure the media gets all sides – and not just from an official spokesperson reading a statement.
AG: Just before WFP confirmed this “half a million tons” of humanitarian fuel stolen by Tigrayan military, UN in Geneva warned about upcoming “hunger season,” which means TPLF’s action will certainly lead to mass fatality of the most vulnerable Tigrayans. Can such diversion of 570,000 liters of humanitarian fuel for military purposes be justified in any way?
ASSISTANT SECRETARY NAGY: No
AG: Noting that many western officials like USAID’s Sean Jones confirmed TPLF looting aid warehouses in the past, Ethiopian Ambassador Berhanu Tsegaye said on Thursday the latest news of TPLF forces stealing massive lifesaving humanitarian fuel will not lead to targeted Western sanctions on TPLF leadership, nor would it reduce Western diplomatic support for the group. Would you agree?
ASSISTANT SECRETARY NAGY: On sanctions, I have no idea. Applying sanctions is a long, bureaucratic process involving several US Govt agencies plus the White House – and there is always a question of priorities between different global regions. On “support for the TPLF” – I realize perception is reality, and that many Ethiopians feel this way. I can only speak for when I was in the last administration and I can assure you our primary goal was to stop the conflict, stop the suffering, as quickly as possible. Obviously we didn’t succeed and tragedy has compounded tragedy.
AG: After TPLF relaunched war, Ethiopia’s Minister of Defense, Abraham Belay, who is an ethnic Tigrayan, said “real courage is paying political sacrifice to find lasting peace, not finding an excuse to send our Tigrayan people to more wars.” Do you see any potential TPLF leader who can step up and say enough?
ASSISTANT SECRETARY NAGY: Great question but I don’t have an answer. I’ve heard from Tegaru who oppose the TPLF and seek another way, but historically there is considerable cross-identity between the people of Tigray and the TPLF. Only the future course of events can answer that question.
AG: Controversial US Congressman Brad Sherman said he is “horrified by the Ethiopian government’s renewed assault on Tigray” right after the media reported resumption of major war in KOBO town of Amhara region, which is over 30 kilometers away from a Tigray town. Do US embassy staffers or any American diplomatic officials make an effort to inform US lawmakers about basic facts, particularly in sensitive and serious cases like this?
ASSISTANT SECRETARY NAGY: US Embassies report what they know is happening and try and put that into the correct perspective so Washington policy makers have complete information in making decisions. US Department of State personnel also maintain and exchange of information with Congressional staff and members. What individual members of Congress say, is up to them, and in no way controlled by the Executive (Presidential) branch of the US Government.
AG: After US joined EU in imposing arms embargo on Ethiopia, only Abiy’s federal government has felt the crunch, because TPLF already stored its stockpiles over 3 decades and currently, it does not use legal channels. Should EU & US cancel such an unfair embargo that can be implemented only against one party to the conflict?
ASSISTANT SECRETARY NAGY: Again, that’s up to the current US Administration to decide. What I can tell you is that implementing embargoes is much easier than removing them. I worked this issue with several African nations while I was Assistant secretary and it was a long and tortuous process.
AG: Our media had reported about the devastating impact on thousands of low-income women workers in southern Ethiopia after Biden’s US administration suspended AGOA. This US foreign policy blunder, which contradicts purported American values & decency, did not happen under your watch as Assistant Secretary for African Affairs. Why now?
ASSISTANT SECRETARY NAGY: I have said publicly that I believed removing AGOA was an unwise decision because it would in no way impact the course of events and only hurt innocent workers – mostly women; exactly the people our policies seek to uplift economically. You have to remember, many things the US Govt does is in response to domestic political considerations, not just international ones.
AG: On the topic of American values, promoting democratic institutions were said to be a key priority in US foreign policy. Under the leadership of Birtukan Mideksa (an ideological opponent of Abiy’s government) the vital NEBE election board has become independent of the Ethiopian ruling party for the first time in our history. But why did top US officials like Samantha Powers downplay the relatively fair multiparty 2021 elections in Ethiopia while praising an alleged “civilian-led democracy” in Sudan?
ASSISTANT SECRETARY NAGY: You have to ask her. I view elections in the context of the historical gradient, not as isolated events – so on that spectrum the last elections were quite positive in comparison to what happened before. Also, given what’s happening with the US’ own elections and the many controversies, it’s perhaps not the best time for us to be “grading” others.
AG: After the award-winning rights activist Daniel Bekele transformed EHRC into an independent institution, abuses by Ethiopian government, both in Tigray & outside, were exposed & condemned by such a domestic rights entity for the first time in our history. Disregarding such reforms, do you support the school of thought among some multinational organizations like HRW who suggest Africans are incapable of conducting credible probes and investigations are dubbed “independent” only if redone by non-African NGOs?
ASSISTANT SECRETARY NAGY: Absolutely NOT! This plays into the vicious narrative that somehow Africans are not advanced enough to undertake tasks others do. I am a huge admirer of the EHCR and the type of work they are doing under the most difficult of circumstances – getting criticism from all sides.
AG: The reformed Ethiopian Ministry of Justice, under the independent technocrat Gedion Timotheos, has prosecuted & charged dozens of federal soldiers for excesses during the war, with some even imprisoned. Meanwhile, the TPLF authorities have yet to hold anyone on their side accountable. Some Ethiopians say this discrepancy and the unfair rules of engagement is crippling Ethiopian troops. You worked under the Trump administration that relaxed US troops’ rules of engagement in Afghanistan. What is your view on this topic?
ASSISTANT SECRETARY NAGY: During my calls with Ethiopian officials after the conflict started I would highlight that fair or unfair, Ethiopia as the sovereign state, would be held to higher standards then a breakaway region in rebellion. This has proven to be the case.
AG: One of the disputes between Tigray & Amhara will be the status of the diverse Raya region where locals mostly speak Amharic & Tigrigna with some even having Oromo ancestry. But TPLF rulers annexed it as “southern Tigray” unconstitutionally in 1990s, just like TPLF infamously renamed Welkait “Western Tigray.” Did US Secretary of State Blinken made a mistake diving into such sensitive matters on the side of TPLF?
ASSISTANT SECRETARY NAGY: I don’t know how the Secretary “dove into..on the side of the TPLF.” This will be one of the most difficult issue to be settled and should wait until “low hanging fruit” is picked. This issue resonates with me very much because after World War I, my native country of Hungary lost 2/3 of its territory – including millions of Hungarian speakers, because it lost the war. And the issue still burns. So such sensitive issue will take great care and deliberation if permanent peace is to be achieved.
AG: Similar territorial ethnic disputes exist everywhere in Ethiopia, including here in southern Ethiopia where the Gedeo & recently the Koore people became victims of deadly raids by Oromo Liberation Army (OLA) with alleged tacit support from rogue local Oromia security forces. Just like the dominant Amhara-Tigray kingdoms historically expanded, the legacy of imperial conquests by Oromo expansionists still reverberates today in southern Ethiopia. What do you personally believe is a lasting solution for Ethiopia’s existential administrative crisis?
ASSISTANT SECRETARY NAGY: I tell my students that there is one nation, composed of ethnic groups that are historical enemies, which succeeds magnificently. I ask them to guess which one. No one ever does – because the answer is Switzerland! The big difference between it and a number of African countries with bitter ethnic conflicts – in Switzerland the people divide riches while in Africa they divide poverty. This is why I believe with all my heart and soul that economic progress is what brings peace – when everyone has a good income, and owns their homes, their kids go to school and medical care is available, they have a personal interest in making their country work – immaterial of ethnicity, etc. That is my dream for Ethiopia’s future
