Dr Ayele Gelan * 

The Political Horseshoe Theory

The defamation and character assassination campaign against Jawar Mohammed during the last few days has pushed me over the edge to say a few words on a particular concern I have had for long time. I have so far reserved myself from expressing it. But now I have decided to let it go, and call a spade a spade.  

To begin with, nothing more upsets me deeply than witnessing an Oromo elite (or a group of Oromo elites) displaying behavior resembling that of gatekeepers of the habesha empire.  Sadly there is no scarcity of Oromo activists and elites who behave exactly like that.  

It is the familiar psychological imprint resulting from living under a colonial system.

The “political horseshoe theory” explains the situation.  If we arrange political viewpoints in Ethiopia along a spectrum from extreme right to extreme left, then we notice something bizarre: the behaviors of those in extreme right and extreme left resemble each other. This is analogous to the similarities between extreme ends of the horseshoe shown in the picture below.

The gate keepers of the Ethiopian empire have proven time and again that they are the worst enemies of unity among diverse people in Ethiopia. They clutch onto “Ethiopia”, push everybody else aside, and consider Ethiopia as their private fiefdom. The expanding and deepening chaos in Ethiopia can one way or another be explained by the behaviors of the gatekeepers of the empire.

Similarly, a few elites who have hold extreme viewpoints among Oromos often present themselves as gatekeepers of Orommumma (Oromo nationalism). They have been the main source of discord and disunity among Oromos. They declare that they are more Oromo than the rest of Oromos. They are cocksure that they hold monopoly of truth. Defaming and character assassination has often been used to tantalize and rally support by dis-informing the Oromo public.  They would label Oromos who hold a viewpoint slightly differing from theirs as traitors who collaborated with the enemy camp.

The fact of the matter is Oromo is a normal society where people hold ranges of opinions.  If one starts from a moderate stance, then one would need to move a long way along the differing shades of opinions, before one enters the “traitors range”. 

The sad reality is that the hardliners would classify even the moderates as “traitors”. They would not be satisfied unless they forcefully pull every one to their extreme fringe position. 

This is an abnormal situation it should be stopped.

Ayele Gelan is an Oromo political analyst and economist